JPMorgan puts Democratic sweep odds below Kalshi and Polymarket pricing
The Evergreen Edit reports JPMorgan, via CNBC, assigned 66 percent to Democrats winning both chambers, 26 percent to a Democratic House with a Republican Senate, 7 percent to Republicans keeping both chambers and 1 percent to a Republican House with a Democratic Senate. The bank's 66 percent sweep figure sits well below the roughly 75 to 78 percent sweep pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, and JPMorgan estimated the S&P 500 reaction to a sweep at between a 0.25 percent dip and a 0.50 percent gain.
JPMorgan assigned a 66 percent probability to Democrats winning both chambers, below the roughly 75 to 78 percent sweep pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, according to The Evergreen Edit, citing CNBC.
The report, published Nov 3, 2026 at 6:45 PM ET, highlights a gap between the bank’s election assessment and prediction-market pricing for the same broad outcome.
How the bank divides the outcomes
A Democratic House paired with a Republican Senate received a 26 percent probability in JPMorgan’s assessment. The bank assigned 7 percent to Republicans keeping both chambers and 1 percent to a Republican House alongside a Democratic Senate, according to The Evergreen Edit.
Those four scenarios place a Democratic sweep first and a Democratic House with a Republican Senate second. The sweep estimate nevertheless trails the cited market range by roughly 9 to 12 percentage points.
A narrow estimated equity response
JPMorgan estimated that a Democratic sweep would produce an S&P 500 reaction ranging from a 0.25 percent dip to a 0.50 percent gain, according to The Evergreen Edit’s account of CNBC’s reporting.
That range spans both a decline and an advance. It is a separate assessment from the probability of a sweep: the bank’s election odds identify its most likely outcome, while its equity estimate allows for movement in either direction.
What it means for prediction markets
- A measurable probability gap: JPMorgan’s 66 percent estimate is below the roughly 75 to 78 percent pricing cited for Kalshi and Polymarket.
- The leading alternative is divided control: The bank’s 26 percent probability for a Democratic House and Republican Senate makes that its second-most-likely scenario.
- Election odds do not establish equity direction: JPMorgan’s estimated S&P 500 response to a sweep ranges from a 0.25 percent loss to a 0.50 percent gain.
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