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Ossoff tops early 2028 pricing as Democrats hold party-market advantage

Prices pulled on November 5 at 11:45 AM ET put JD Vance second at 14 percent, with Marco Rubio averaging 11.5 percent across the two venues. Kalshi prices Democrats at 66 percent against Republicans at 34 percent in its party market, and its winner market had traded 87.4 million dollars at pull time.

Jon Ossoff led pricing for the 2028 presidential election winner on both Kalshi and Polymarket US at 23 percent, according to RotoWire. The snapshot was taken on November 5 at 11:45 AM ET.

JD Vance ranked second at 14 percent. Marco Rubio’s price averaged 11.5 percent across the two venues, placing him below Ossoff and Vance in the reported figures.

Candidate and party markets tell different stories

Ossoff’s matching prices across the two venues put him at the front of the reported candidate field, but well below 50 percent. The snapshot identifies a leader, not a market expectation that any single candidate is more likely than not to win.

Kalshi’s separate party market showed a clearer advantage: Democrats were priced at 66 percent, against 34 percent for Republicans. Those contracts address the winning party rather than the identity of the eventual president.

Volume and timing frame the snapshot

Kalshi’s presidential winner market had traded 87.4 million dollars when the prices were pulled, according to RotoWire. That volume figure applies to Kalshi’s winner market, not to its party market or combined activity across both venues.

The report was published on Nov 5, 2026 at 4:45 PM ET. Its prices therefore reflect the earlier 11:45 AM ET pull, rather than a reading at publication time.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Leader, not majority favorite: Ossoff’s 23 percent price on each venue establishes his reported lead without implying that his victory is the most likely outcome against the rest of the field combined.
  • Keep contract scope separate: Kalshi’s 66 percent Democratic price concerns party control of the presidency; it is not a direct estimate of Ossoff’s chances.
  • Compare figures carefully: Rubio’s 11.5 percent is a two-venue average, while Ossoff’s 23 percent was reported separately on both platforms.
  • Use the pull time: These figures describe November 5 at 11:45 AM ET and do not establish subsequent price movements.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    RotoWirerotowire.com
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    https://www.rotowire.com
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