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Vance tops 2028 winner pricing as platforms differ on closest challenger

Sikt Intelligence put JD Vance first in the 2028 presidential winner market at 20 percent on Kalshi and 19 percent on Polymarket. Gavin Newsom is second at 14 percent on Kalshi and 12 percent on Polymarket, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10 percent and 13 percent.

According to Sikt Intelligence, JD Vance leads the 2028 presidential winner market on both Kalshi and Polymarket, at 20 percent and 19 percent, respectively.

The snapshot, published Nov 1, 2026 · 10:00 AM ET, puts Vance ahead of Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on both platforms, though their relative positions differ by venue.

Different rankings behind Vance

Newsom stands at 14 percent on Kalshi and 12 percent on Polymarket, according to Sikt Intelligence. Ocasio-Cortez is priced at 10 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

Sikt Intelligence describes Newsom as second, followed by Ocasio-Cortez. The platform-specific figures support that ordering on Kalshi, but show Ocasio-Cortez ahead of Newsom on Polymarket.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Vance leads on both venues, but neither quoted price approaches a majority probability.
  • The two platforms agree on the leader while differing on which of the other two candidates ranks higher.
  • This is a single snapshot: the supplied figures do not establish whether any candidate’s price is rising or falling.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Sikt Intelligence
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