Jaguars Super Bowl LXI probability edges higher as market prices diverge
RG reports the Jaguars contract moved from 10.1 percent to 11.0 percent over 24 hours on Polymarket, priced at +809 compared with +900 at BetRivers, FanDuel and Fanatics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ Super Bowl LXI contract on Polymarket reached 11.0 percent after trading at 10.1 percent 24 hours earlier, according to RG.
The update, published Nov 7, 2026 at 10:15 AM ET, puts the move at 0.9 percentage points. The increase reflects a higher market-implied probability of a Jaguars championship.
Polymarket and sportsbooks show different prices
RG placed the Polymarket contract’s equivalent odds at +809. That compares with +900 at each of BetRivers, FanDuel and Fanatics.
The comparison shows Polymarket assigning the Jaguars a higher implied chance than those sportsbook prices suggest. The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the move or provide trading-volume information.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction: The rise from 10.1 percent to 11.0 percent marks a modest increase in the Jaguars’ market-implied title probability over 24 hours.
- Cross-market pricing: Polymarket’s +809 equivalent differs from the +900 available at all three named sportsbooks.
- Evidence limits: Without volume data or a reported catalyst, the price change alone does not establish what drove the shift.
Sources & attribution
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- RGrg.org
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- https://rg.org
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