Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Kalshi pricing shifts sharply toward Democrats’ 12 to 14 percent margin

DeFi Rate lists the 2026 midterms House popular vote margin contract on Kalshi with the Democrats by 12 to 14 percent band at 58 percent, up from 14 percent over seven days for a 44 point gain. The reading is based on daily closing prices through the latest observation at 3:56 PM ET on November 4.

According to DeFi Rate, Kalshi’s contract tracking the House popular vote margin in the 2026 midterms priced the Democrats by 12 to 14 percent outcome at 58 percent.

That band stood at 14 percent seven days earlier, making the latest reading a 44 percentage-point increase.

The timing behind the move

DeFi Rate’s comparison uses daily closing prices, with the latest observation recorded at 3:56 PM ET on November 4. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 4:00 PM ET.

The 58 percent figure refers to the price of the specific Democratic margin band—not the party’s overall probability of winning the House popular vote or controlling the chamber.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The seven-day move from 14 percent to 58 percent represents a substantial repricing of the Democrats by 12 to 14 percent outcome.
  • The supplied figures cover one margin band. Without prices for the other bands, they do not show the market’s full distribution of expected results.
  • The reading is tied to the 3:56 PM ET observation on November 4, rather than a final election result.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related