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Democratic House odds rise as sweep contracts show wider venue gap

DeFi Rate reports its House control page, observed between 5:56 p.m. and 6:26 p.m. ET, averages Democrats at 96 percent across Kalshi at 95.4 cents, Polymarket at 96.8 cents and Polymarket US at 96.3 cents, up from a 93.9 percent average earlier in the evening. Its balance of power board averages a Democratic sweep at 78 percent, built from a wide venue split of Kalshi at 74.5 cents and Polymarket at 80.5 cents.

Democrats’ average probability of controlling the House reached 96 percent on DeFi Rate’s House control page, up from 93.9 percent earlier in the evening, according to DeFi Rate.

The observations covered 5:56 p.m. to 6:26 p.m. ET. The report was published Nov 3, 2026, at 6:45 PM ET.

House prices cluster, sweep prices diverge

The House average combined Kalshi at 95.4 cents, Polymarket at 96.8 cents and Polymarket US at 96.3 cents, according to DeFi Rate. Polymarket carried the highest price of the three, while Kalshi was lowest.

DeFi Rate’s balance of power board put the average probability of a Democratic sweep at 78 percent. That reading reflected a wider split between venues: Kalshi priced the outcome at 74.5 cents, compared with 80.5 cents on Polymarket.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The rise from 93.9 percent to 96 percent shows a strengthening market assessment of Democratic House control during the evening, not a confirmed election result.
  • The House contracts were more closely aligned across the listed venues than the Democratic sweep contracts. Venue selection therefore mattered more to the quoted sweep price.
  • These readings describe the reported observation window; they should not be treated as subsequent or final market prices.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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