Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026 priced at 46.0% on Polymarket, down 4.5 points, on $275K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers and crypto boards list the Hibachi token-launch contract among their downward crypto moves, in a crypto/commodities category distinct from the…
The Polymarket contract on whether Hibachi will launch a token by December 31, 2026 was priced at 46.0%, down 4.5 probability points, with $275K traded in the Oct 25, 2026 · 4:24 AM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles, its movers and crypto boards placed the contract among declining crypto markets.
A lower price, without an identified catalyst
The move puts the market-implied probability below 50%. It reflects a lower price for a launch by the specified deadline, rather than confirmation that Hibachi has changed its plans. The supplied material identifies no announcement or other event explaining the decline.
PredictionBubbles groups the contract in its crypto/commodities category. Its movers board compares probability changes over 24 hours, so the 4.5-point decline is an absolute change in implied probability—not a 4.5% relative decrease.
How the snapshot is measured
According to PredictionBubbles, the board draws prices directly from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 25 Oct 2026, 08:06 UTC and ranks 2,028 markets with lifetimes longer than 14 days.
Rankings depend on the size of the probability-point move, not trading volume or liquidity. The $275K traded provides activity context, but the supplied Hibachi information does not specify its volume measurement period or order-book depth. Those limits matter when assessing how much weight to place on the repricing.
What it means for prediction markets
- Deadline-specific signal: The 46.0% price concerns a token launch by December 31, 2026, not whether Hibachi will ever launch one.
- Movement is not a catalyst: The 4.5-point decline establishes a change in pricing; the supplied reporting does not establish why it happened.
- Volume is incomplete context: The $275K traded does not, by itself, show how liquid the contract was during the decline.
- Snapshot, not a fixed probability: PredictionBubbles refreshes every 15 minutes, so subsequent prices may differ from this update.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Republican win the House race for TX-15 — Monica De La Cruz priced at 15.0% on Kalshi, up 4.0 points, on $2.4M traded
- T1 win Worlds 2026 priced at 15.5% on Polymarket, down 3.0 points, on $289K traded
- 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.8% before 2027 priced at 51.5% on Polymarket, down 11.0 points, on $400 traded
- Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota — Michele Tafoya priced at 19.0% on Kalshi, up 4.0 points, on $2.6M traded
- Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or priced at 91.7% on Polymarket, down 5.5 points, on $119K traded
- Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4% priced at 45.5% on Polymarket, up 7.0 points, on $870K traded