Republicans win the Senate race in Minnesota — Michele Tafoya priced at 19.0% on Kalshi, up 4.0 points, on $2.6M traded

Tafoya contract moves higher

Michele Tafoya’s Minnesota Senate contract on Kalshi was priced at 19.0%, up 4.0 percentage points, with $2.6M traded, according to the supplied market snapshot published Oct 25, 2026 · 4:54 AM ET. The figures describe market pricing—not a confirmed Republican election victory.

According to PredictionBubbles, the Tafoya contract appeared among upward moves in its political/election category, separate from the board’s lead item. The supplied material does not identify a news event or other catalyst behind the increase.

What the board measures

PredictionBubbles ranks contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket by their absolute probability-point changes over 24 hours, rather than their relative percentage gains. Its supplied snapshot was read from the venues on 25 Oct 2026, 08:37 UTC, and the board refreshes every 15 minutes.

The ranking covers 2,025 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify; resolved contracts and those without a sufficiently old baseline are excluded. The displayed table includes the top 150 of 490 markets moving at least one probability point.

Trading volume provides context but does not affect the movement ranking, according to PredictionBubbles. The $2.6M figure accompanying Tafoya’s contract therefore needs to be considered separately from its 4.0-point increase; the supplied snapshot does not establish that this amount traded during the measurement window.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction is not dominance: The contract moved higher, but its 19.0% price still represents an implied probability below half.
• A price move is not an election result: The listing records a change in traders’ assessment, not confirmation that Republicans have won Minnesota’s Senate race.
• The catalyst remains unclear: Without contract-specific reporting or order-book detail, the material does not establish why the price rose or how much liquidity supported the move.