Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4% priced at 45.5% on Polymarket, up 7.0 points, on $870K traded

Narrow-win contract moves higher

A Polymarket contract on Flávio Bolsonaro winning the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4% was priced at 45.5%, up 7.0 probability points, with $870K traded, as of the Oct 25, 2026 · 4:39 AM ET report.

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board placed the contract among rising political markets. The question concerns a specific outcome—a Bolsonaro victory within the stated margin—not simply whether he wins the election.

What the ranking measures

PredictionBubbles ranks moves over 24 hours using changes in probability points rather than relative percentages. Its supplied snapshot drew venue prices at 25 Oct 2026, 08:06 UTC, and the board refreshes every 15 minutes.

The ranking covers 2,028 markets lasting longer than 14 days across Polymarket and Kalshi. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour price comparison qualify; volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine ranking positions, according to PredictionBubbles.

The supplied material does not identify a news event, poll or other catalyst for the Bolsonaro contract’s rise. It also does not specify the period covered by the reported $870K traded or provide the contract’s detailed settlement criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

• The outcome is narrowly defined. The 45.5% price applies to a Bolsonaro second-round win by less than 4%, not to his overall election-winning probability.
• The change is in points. The 7.0-point increase measures the shift in market-implied probability over 24 hours, not a 7.0% relative gain.
• Volume does not establish the cause. The $870K traded supplies activity context, but the available material does not show order-book depth or explain what drove the repricing.