Moody’s Florida Senate market pricing contrasts with narrower polling advantage
Polymarket and Kalshi both price Ashley Moody at 88 cents in the Florida Senate race against Angie Nixon at 14 cents on Polymarket, even though closing polls put Moody ahead by only 2 to 7 points. Both winner markets settle on the November 3 result, with polls closing at 7 p.m. ET.
Prediction markets show Ashley Moody as the clear favorite against Angie Nixon in the Florida Senate race, despite a more modest lead in closing polls, according to Action Network.
Prices and polls offer different measures
Moody is priced at 88 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Nixon is priced at 14 cents on Polymarket, according to Action Network.
Closing polls put Moody ahead by 2 to 7 points. That polling margin measures her lead in voter support, while winner-market pricing reflects expectations about who will prevail. The figures therefore are not directly comparable.
Settlement centers on November 3
Both exchanges’ winner markets settle on the November 3 result. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET, according to Action Network.
The report was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 6:15 PM ET, placing the reported prices shortly before polls close. The supplied material does not include a Kalshi price for Nixon.
What it means for prediction markets
- A strong favorite, not a projected margin: Moody’s 88-cent price on both exchanges signals a strong market preference for her winning, rather than a forecast of the size of her victory.
- Polling leaves a narrower picture: The reported 2-to-7-point leads are smaller than the market’s pronounced preference might suggest, but do not alone establish that pricing is inconsistent.
- Timing matters: The quoted prices precede the 7 p.m. ET poll closing; both contracts resolve on the November 3 result.
Sources & attribution
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