December Fed hike odds ease as market prices converge near 70%

According to DeFi Rate’s November 1 board, prediction-market pricing for a Fed hike at the December 9 meeting stands near 70%, after declining five points over seven days.

Two venues show similar pricing

Kalshi lists the hike contract at 69.5 cents, while Polymarket lists it at 70.5 cents, according to DeFi Rate. The two prices are one cent apart, placing both venues close to the 70% level.

The combined price’s five-point decline is measured using daily closing prices through the latest observation on November 1. That comparison describes the seven-day change, rather than an intraday move.

What the snapshot establishes

The supplied summary, published November 1, 2026, at 7:15 AM ET, provides the venue prices and the combined weekly change. It does not identify a catalyst for the decline or provide individual daily closes.

The pricing still favors a hike at the December 9 meeting, but less strongly than seven days earlier. The reported figures do not establish whether both venues contributed equally to that shift.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction: The five-point decline indicates lower market-implied odds of a December 9 hike over the reported seven-day window.
• Venue comparison: Kalshi’s 69.5-cent price and Polymarket’s 70.5-cent price show a narrow gap in this snapshot.
• Evidence limits: Without daily closes or a reported catalyst, the summary does not explain when the repricing occurred or what drove it.