December Fed hike odds diverge across futures and prediction markets
PredictionMarketsPicks' December tracker, updated November 2 at 12:30 AM EST, puts Kalshi's full hike price at 72 percent with a hold at 28 percent for the December 8 to 9 FOMC meeting. The tracker notes the market favorite has won 15 of the last 15 Fed decisions since 2025 on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Federal Reserve futures and prediction markets show different probabilities of a December rate increase, according to PredictionMarketsPicks. Its headline places the futures-implied probability at 76.1 percent, compared with 70.5 percent on Kalshi and 69.5 percent on Polymarket.
The reported 6.6 point gap separates futures from Polymarket. All three figures favor a hike, but they indicate different levels of confidence ahead of the December 8 to 9 FOMC meeting.
Tracker update shows a different Kalshi reading
PredictionMarketsPicks’ December tracker, updated November 2 at 12:30 AM EST, gives Kalshi’s full hike price as 72 percent and its hold price as 28 percent. That Kalshi reading differs from the 70.5 percent cited in the headline. The supplied material does not explain the discrepancy or establish whether the headline figures were captured at the same time as the tracker update. The item was published Nov 2, 2026, at 3:00 AM ET.
The tracker also says the favored outcome has prevailed in 15 of the last 15 Fed decisions since 2025 on Kalshi and Polymarket. That historical record provides context for the current pricing, but does not establish the outcome of the December decision.
What it means for prediction markets
- A shared favorite, different probabilities: Both prediction platforms and futures favor a hike in the headline figures, with futures assigning the highest probability.
- The comparison needs a timing caveat: The reported 6.6 point spread is between futures and Polymarket; the separate Kalshi tracker reading should not be treated as a synchronized observation without further information.
- Past accuracy is not a December result: The 15-of-15 record describes previous favored outcomes, not certainty about the December 8 to 9 meeting.
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