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Ether downside odds retreat after Binance hack lifts market concern

RG.org reports Polymarket priced Ether dipping to 2,000 dollars in 2026 at 47 percent, up from 37 percent before the Binance hack and down from an overnight high of 51 percent, with Ether trading around 2,230 dollars. The same report priced Bitcoin above 76,000 dollars on October 31 at 82 percent.

Polymarket priced the chance of Ether dipping to 2,000 dollars in 2026 at 47 percent, according to RG.org. That was above the 37 percent level recorded before the Binance hack.

Ether odds pull back from overnight peak

The probability had reached an overnight high of 51 percent before easing to 47 percent. The figures leave the market below that peak but still 10 percentage points above its pre-hack level.

Ether was trading around 2,230 dollars, according to the same report. The 2,000-dollar threshold therefore remained below the reported trading price.

Bitcoin contract carries a different deadline

RG.org also reported an 82 percent probability on Polymarket for Bitcoin to be above 76,000 dollars on October 31. The supplied report was published on Oct 31, 2026, at 4:00 PM ET.

The two contracts address different outcomes and time frames: Ether dipping to a specified level in 2026, versus Bitcoin standing above a specified level on October 31. Their probabilities are not directly comparable measures of sentiment.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Ether’s move from 37 percent before the Binance hack to 47 percent shows a higher priced likelihood of the downside outcome, despite the retreat from 51 percent.
  • At 47 percent, the Ether contract remained below an even chance; its overnight peak had briefly put it above that mark.
  • Bitcoin’s 82 percent reading applies to the October 31 threshold, not to the broader 2026 window used by the Ether contract.
PolymarketBitcoinEthereumInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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