Democratic control priced higher for House than Senate as voting begins

Democrats hold the stronger position in markets for control of both congressional chambers as voting begins, according to Sikt Intelligence’s November 3 update using public data from Kalshi and Polymarket.

House probabilities exceed Senate readings

The update, published Nov 3, 2026 at 3:15 AM ET, puts the probability of Democrats winning the House at 93 percent on Kalshi and 94 percent on Polymarket.

For the Senate, Sikt Intelligence lists Democrats at 74 percent on Kalshi and 76 percent on Polymarket. Both platforms therefore show a less decisive Democratic advantage in that chamber than in the House.

Platforms show similar assessments

Polymarket’s Democratic probabilities sit above Kalshi’s for both chambers. The difference between the platforms is smaller than the separation between their House and Senate readings.

These figures represent market probabilities at the reported update, not election results. The supplied summary does not include earlier readings or trading-volume data, so it does not establish how prices have moved or how much activity supports them.

What it means for prediction markets

• Chamber differences matter: Both platforms price Democratic House control more strongly than Democratic Senate control.
• Cross-platform readings are close: Kalshi and Polymarket show similar probabilities for each chamber, with Polymarket higher in both cases.
• Timing limits the interpretation: The figures capture an update as voting begins; they do not establish a price trend or a final outcome.