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Democratic odds lead on both exchanges as party prices diverge

PolymarketTrader's November 7 side-by-side read puts Republicans at 32.5 percent on Polymarket and 34.5 percent on Kalshi, a two-point gap between the venues on the party market. Prices are midpoints between the best bid and ask on each exchange.

Democrats are favored to win the 2028 presidential election on both Polymarket and Kalshi, according to PolymarketTrader’s November 7 comparison. The Democratic price stands at 67.5 percent on Polymarket and 65.5 percent on Kalshi.

A two-point difference across venues

Republicans are priced at 32.5 percent on Polymarket and 34.5 percent on Kalshi, according to the same comparison. That places the Republican price higher on Kalshi and the Democratic price higher on Polymarket.

The party-market gap between the two exchanges is two percentage points. Both venues favor the same party, but Polymarket’s pricing shows a larger Democratic advantage.

How the prices were measured

PolymarketTrader’s update, published Nov 7, 2026, at 12:45 PM ET, uses the midpoint between the best bid and ask on each exchange. The figures therefore describe midpoint pricing rather than a specified execution price.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Directional agreement: Both exchanges price Democrats above Republicans for the 2028 presidential election.
  • Venue differences: Democratic pricing is two percentage points higher on Polymarket; Republican pricing is two points higher on Kalshi.
  • Measurement matters: These midpoint figures do not establish the prices available to buyers or sellers at execution.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
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