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Democratic control leads congressional pricing as exchanges track closely

A Democratic House with a Republican Senate is the main alternative at 29 cents on Kalshi and 28 cents on Polymarket, while a Republican sweep sits at 8.3 cents and 9 cents. The two exchanges price every balance-of-power outcome within about a point of each other heading into Election Day.

A Democratic sweep is the leading outcome in Congress balance-of-power markets, priced at 66 cents on both Kalshi and Polymarket, according to Vegas Insider. The figures were reported on Nov 3, 2026, at 4:00 AM ET, heading into Election Day.

Split control is the main alternative

The next-highest-priced outcome is a Democratic House paired with a Republican Senate. That combination trades at 29 cents on Kalshi and 28 cents on Polymarket, according to Vegas Insider.

A Republican sweep is priced considerably lower: 8.3 cents on Kalshi and 9 cents on Polymarket. Both exchanges therefore show the same ranking for the three outcomes cited, with Democratic control of both chambers ahead of split control and a Republican sweep.

Vegas Insider describes prices for every balance-of-power outcome as being within about a point across the two exchanges. The figures show little disagreement between venues at this Election Day snapshot, though they do not establish how prices have changed over time.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Agreement across exchanges: The identical 66-cent Democratic-sweep price indicates that the leading outcome is not specific to either Kalshi or Polymarket.
  • The main competing scenario is split control: A Democratic House and Republican Senate carries a substantially higher price than a Republican sweep on both venues.
  • Timing limits the conclusion: These are prices reported at 4:00 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026—not election results or evidence of a pricing trend.
KalshiPolymarketSenateCongressElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Vegas Insider
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