Kalshi traders price Democratic control at 73 percent after record peak
Kalshi News reports the sweep price climbed from 62.4 percent a week ago to the 75.6 percent high before easing to 73 percent at 4:50 p.m. ET, with a Democratic House and Republican Senate at 22 percent and a Republican sweep at 6.7 percent. Its separate chamber markets price Democrats at 93.6 percent for the House and 74 percent for the Senate, with Iowa's Senate race tied at 50 percent.
Kalshi’s Democratic sweep price stood at 73 percent at 4:50 p.m. ET on Election Day, below an earlier all-time high of 75.6 percent, according to Kalshi News. The report was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 6:00 PM ET.
Sweep pricing rises over the week
The Democratic sweep price had been 62.4 percent a week ago, according to Kalshi News. Despite easing from its Election Day peak, the latest reading remained above that earlier level.
The alternative combination of a Democratic House and Republican Senate was priced at 22 percent. A Republican sweep stood at 6.7 percent, according to the same report.
Senate carries more uncertainty than House
Separate chamber markets put Democrats at 93.6 percent for control of the House and 74 percent for control of the Senate, according to Kalshi News. Those prices indicate a stronger market expectation of a Democratic House than of a Democratic Senate.
Iowa’s Senate race was tied at 50 percent, according to Kalshi News, leaving that contest evenly balanced in market pricing even as Democrats were favored to control the chamber overall.
What it means for prediction markets
- The move from 62.4 percent a week ago to 73 percent at 4:50 p.m. ET shows a substantial rise in the Democratic sweep price, but the retreat from 75.6 percent shows that pricing was not moving uniformly higher.
- The separate House and Senate prices place more uncertainty on Senate control, making that chamber the less assured component of a Democratic sweep.
- Iowa’s 50 percent reading highlights a closely balanced race; it does not, by itself, establish whether that contest will determine Senate control.
Sources & attribution
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- Kalshi Newsnews.kalshi.com
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