Iran invasion contract leads tracker volume despite low implied odds
The Iran contract is the top market by volume in the PicksByOdds tracker, down 3 points, and closes on January 1, 2027. Two of the tracker's top five markets by volume are longshots priced under 15 cents.
A Polymarket contract on whether the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027 is priced at 12 cents, with 77.9 million dollars traded, according to PicksByOdds. It ranks first by volume in the PicksByOdds tracker.
Heavy trading, low pricing
The update, published Nov 5, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET, shows the Iran contract down 3 points. The supplied summary does not identify the period over which that decline occurred.
The contract closes on January 1, 2027. Its stated question concerns a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027, though the supplied material does not include detailed resolution criteria.
Longshots feature among volume leaders
Two of the PicksByOdds tracker's top five markets by volume are priced under 15 cents. The Iran contract is one of them; the supplied summary does not identify the other.
The rankings highlight a distinction between trading activity and market pricing: the Iran contract leads the tracker in volume while remaining a low-priced outcome.
What it means for prediction markets
- Volume is not likelihood: The 77.9 million dollars traded establishes the contract's position in the tracker, not a high probability of an invasion.
- The price has weakened: The 12-cent price follows a 3-point decline, but the missing comparison period limits interpretation of that move.
- Resolution details matter: The January 1, 2027 closing date is specified, but the supplied material does not explain how an invasion would be defined for settlement.
Sources & attribution
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