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Polymarket puts December Fed quarter-point increase probability at 77.5 percent

Traders price a 77.5 percent chance that the Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 25 basis points after its December 2026 meeting. The Polymarket contract has traded 12.9 million dollars ahead of the December 9, 2026 resolution.

A Polymarket contract on whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points after its December 2026 meeting is priced at 77.5 percent, according to World Monitor.

The reported price reflects traders’ assessment of that specific outcome, rather than a confirmed Federal Reserve decision. The update was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 4:15 AM ET.

Trading ahead of December resolution

The contract has recorded 12.9 million dollars in trading, according to World Monitor. That figure measures reported trading activity, separately from the probability implied by its price.

Resolution is scheduled for December 9, 2026. The supplied summary does not provide the contract’s detailed settlement criteria or prices for alternative interest-rate outcomes.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A specific increase is favored: The 77.5 percent price places a 25-basis-point increase above an even chance, but does not establish certainty.
  • Volume and probability are distinct: The 12.9 million dollars traded describes activity in the contract, not independent confirmation of the expected policy decision.
  • Settlement details remain important: December 9, 2026 is the stated resolution date; the supplied material does not explain the precise settlement process.
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Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
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