Polymarket pricing heavily favors a November Bank of England rate rise
The market has traded 222,000 dollars and resolves in about 14 hours in the November 5 reading. The matching contract on no change is priced at 1.8 percent, with 153,000 dollars traded.
A Polymarket contract on the Bank of England raising interest rates by 25 basis points after its November 2026 meeting is priced at 98.7 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.
The November 5 reading puts the rate-increase contract close to the top of its pricing range, with about 14 hours remaining before resolution.
Trading activity and the no-change alternative
The rate-rise contract has traded 222,000 dollars, according to the update published Nov 5, 2026, at 5:00 AM ET.
The matching contract for no change in interest rates is priced at 1.8 percent, with 153,000 dollars traded. Both pricing and traded volume are higher for the 25-basis-point increase contract.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 98.7 percent price signals a strong market lean toward a 25-basis-point rise, not a confirmed Bank of England decision.
- The two reported prices total 100.5 percent, so they should not be presented as an exact probability split totaling 100 percent.
- With resolution about 14 hours away in the November 5 reading, these figures represent a near-resolution snapshot rather than a settled outcome.
Sources & attribution
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