Kalshi pricing favors December Fed hike despite three-point daily decline
PredictionBubbles lists the contract down 3 points over 24 hours with 1.3 million dollars traded, while the matching contract on a 0 basis point move is priced at 24 percent.
The Kalshi contract for a Federal Reserve rate increase of 25 basis points at the December 2026 meeting is priced at 76 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.
Hike contract loses ground
PredictionBubbles lists the contract as down 3 points over 24 hours, with 1.3 million dollars traded. The update was published on Nov 7, 2026, at 10:15 AM ET.
The matching contract for a 0 basis point move is priced at 24 percent, according to the same outlet. The quoted prices therefore favor a 25 basis point increase over no change.
What the snapshot leaves open
The supplied summary does not identify a reason for the daily decline or specify the period covered by the trading figure. It provides a pricing snapshot rather than an explanation of what drove the move.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 76 percent price puts the 25 basis point hike ahead of the 0 basis point outcome at 24 percent, but does not establish what the Federal Reserve will decide.
- The 3-point decline over 24 hours shows the hike contract losing ground while remaining the higher-priced of the two.
- The reported 1.3 million dollars traded provides activity context, but the summary does not include order-book depth or bid-ask spreads.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
- Publisher
- https://predictionbubbles.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
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