Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Kalshi pricing shifts toward a December Fed quarter-point rate increase

The contract traded 759,000 dollars and resolves in about 34 days. The companion contract on no change at the same meeting was priced at 21 percent, down 2 points, with 947,000 dollars traded.

December hike contract gains ground

The Kalshi contract tied to the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points at its December 2026 meeting reached 81 percent, a gain of 5 points, according to PredictionBubbles.

The update was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 1:00 AM ET. The hike contract had traded 759,000 dollars and was due to resolve in about 34 days.

Unchanged-rate contract moves lower

The companion contract covering no change at the same meeting was priced at 21 percent, down 2 points, according to PredictionBubbles. Trading in that contract totaled 947,000 dollars.

The reported prices moved in opposite directions, with the hike contract gaining more points than the unchanged-rate contract lost. The no-change contract nevertheless had the larger reported trading total.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 81 percent price puts the 25-basis-point increase ahead of no change among the two reported contracts; it does not establish the meeting’s outcome.
  • The reported prices total 102 percent. The summary provides no pricing or market-structure detail to explain the gap from 100 percent.
  • With resolution about 34 days away, the figures represent a pre-meeting snapshot rather than a settled result.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PredictionBubbles”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related