December Fed hike contract draws $16.6 million in Polymarket trading
The December 2026 Fed rate hike contract on Polymarket has traded 16.6 million dollars and is priced at 76.5 percent. World Monitor tracks 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets totaling 228.0 million dollars in volume.
The Polymarket contract on the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points after the December 2026 meeting is priced at 76.5 percent, according to World Monitor.
The update, published Nov 7, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET, puts trading volume for the contract at 16.6 million dollars.
Pricing and market coverage
The 76.5 percent price favors the specified increase. It reflects the market’s pricing of that outcome, rather than confirmation of a Fed decision.
World Monitor tracks 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi, with total volume of 228.0 million dollars. That broader figure covers the tracked markets, not just the December Fed contract.
What it means for prediction markets
- The outcome is specific: The contract concerns a 25-basis-point increase after the December 2026 meeting, not simply any rate hike.
- The price is a snapshot: The supplied update gives a 76.5 percent price but no earlier readings, so it does not establish whether expectations have risen or fallen.
- Volume has limits as a signal: The 16.6 million dollars traded measures activity; the summary provides no order-book or liquidity details.
Sources & attribution
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- World Monitor
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