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Alito retirement announcement contract drops sharply as year-end deadline approaches

The contract on Samuel Alito announcing his retirement by December 31, 2026 fell 21 cents to 9.5 cents on Polymarket in the snapshot generated at 03:40 UTC on November 5. The market traded 174,000 dollars in 24 hours with 72,700 dollars in liquidity.

Contract falls to 9.5 cents

The Polymarket contract on whether Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by December 31, 2026 declined 21 cents to 9.5 cents, according to PolymarketTrader.

The move placed the contract’s implied probability at 9.5 percent, down 21 percentage points. The condition concerns a retirement announcement by the deadline, rather than the date of retirement itself.

Trading activity and timing

The market recorded 174,000 dollars in trading volume over 24 hours, with 72,700 dollars in liquidity, according to PolymarketTrader.

The figures came from a snapshot generated at 03:40 UTC on November 5. The report was published on Nov 5, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET; the supplied summary identifies no catalyst for the price decline.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The lower price signals a substantial decline in the market-implied likelihood of an Alito retirement announcement by December 31, 2026—not confirmation of his plans.
  • The announcement deadline is central to the contract; an eventual retirement is a separate question.
  • The volume and liquidity figures provide context for trading activity, but the supplied data do not establish what drove the repricing.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
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