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Kalshi prices retreat for November inflation thresholds as trading draws attention

PredictionMarketPicks, in the same 5:00 PM EST snapshot on November 4, lists the contract on the rate of CPI inflation being above 3.7 percent for the year ending in November 2026 among the most-traded economics contracts on Kalshi at 71 cents, down 4 cents in 24 hours, on 2,829 contracts traded. The above 4.0 percent contract for the same period is priced at 17 cents, down 5 cents.

According to PredictionMarketPicks, Kalshi’s contract on CPI inflation exceeding 3.7 percent for the year ending in November 2026 stood at 71 cents in its November 4 snapshot at 5:00 PM EST.

That price was down 4 cents over 24 hours. PredictionMarketPicks listed the contract among Kalshi’s most-traded economics contracts, with 2,829 contracts traded.

Both inflation thresholds move lower

The contract on CPI inflation exceeding 4.0 percent for the same period was priced at 17 cents, according to PredictionMarketPicks. It had fallen 5 cents, a larger decline than the contract tied to the 3.7 percent threshold.

The snapshot therefore showed lower prices for both inflation outcomes, while the above 3.7 percent contract remained substantially more expensive than the above 4.0 percent contract. The supplied figures do not establish what drove either move.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both contracts became cheaper, indicating a shift away from the respective above-threshold outcomes in the reported prices.
  • The 71-cent and 17-cent prices show a clear distinction between market pricing for inflation above 3.7 percent and above 4.0 percent.
  • The reported volume of 2,829 contracts applies to the above 3.7 percent contract; no trading-volume figure was supplied for the above 4.0 percent contract.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    PredictionMarketPicks
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