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Apple takes year-end valuation lead as Polymarket odds reach 58 percent

RG reports Apple rose 5.31 percent to a record high on Wednesday while Nvidia fell 3.17 percent, leaving Apple near 5.08 trillion dollars in market value against Nvidia at about 4.82 trillion dollars. The largest-company market has traded 9.6 million dollars in total.

Apple has moved ahead of Nvidia in Polymarket’s market on which company will be the largest at the end of 2026, according to RG. Apple’s implied probability rose to 58 percent, while Nvidia’s fell 23 percentage points to 42 percent.

Share moves put Apple ahead

According to RG, Apple shares gained 5.31 percent on Wednesday to reach a record high, while Nvidia shares declined 3.17 percent. Those moves left Apple with a market value near $5.08 trillion, compared with about $4.82 trillion for Nvidia.

The stock-market moves and prediction-market shift point in the same direction: Apple holds the higher reported valuation and is now favored in the year-end contract. The current valuation lead, however, is distinct from the outcome at the end of 2026.

Trading activity

The largest-company market has recorded $9.6 million in total trading volume, according to RG. That figure represents cumulative activity, rather than the amount traded during the latest change in odds.

The update, published Nov 5, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, places Apple ahead in both reported market value and contract pricing, with the year-end result still unresolved.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The favorite has changed: Apple’s 58 percent implied probability puts it ahead of Nvidia at 42 percent.
  • The valuation snapshot supports the shift: Apple’s reported market value of near $5.08 trillion exceeds Nvidia’s approximately $4.82 trillion, but does not settle a year-end outcome.
  • Volume needs context: The $9.6 million total does not establish how much trading accompanied Nvidia’s 23-percentage-point decline.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    RGrg.org
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    https://rg.org
    Source URL
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