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Eastern Pacific hurricane wager nears even odds after sharp monthly rise

The Kalshi contract counts Eastern Pacific hurricanes between May 15 and December 1, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service. It has traded 3,389 dollars with 1,031 dollars in open interest, so the 38-point rise rests on thin trading.

A Kalshi contract on more than 10 Eastern Pacific hurricanes of category 1 or above in 2026 is priced at 49 cents, according to PicksByOdds. The price has risen 38 points over 30 days.

The update, published Nov 5, 2026 at 8:15 AM ET, places the contract close to an even-odds price. But the reported trading figures give readers reason to distinguish that price movement from evidence of broad market participation.

Counting window and trading activity

The contract counts qualifying Eastern Pacific hurricanes between May 15 and December 1, 2026, with confirmation by the National Weather Service, according to PicksByOdds. Its threshold is more than 10 hurricanes, rather than 10 or more.

Reported trading totals $3,389, with $1,031 in open interest. Those figures indicate that the 38-point increase rests on thin trading, limiting what the move alone can establish about market conviction.

The supplied summary does not give the number of qualifying hurricanes already confirmed or explain what drove the price increase. It therefore does not establish how close the observed count is to the contract’s threshold.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Price is not a weather assessment: The 49-cent quote is a market signal, not confirmation that the hurricane threshold will be reached.
  • Thin activity matters: With $3,389 traded and $1,031 in open interest, the 38-point rise should not be treated as evidence of widespread agreement.
  • Resolution depends on the specified count: The relevant outcome is more than 10 category 1-or-above Eastern Pacific hurricanes within the May 15–December 1, 2026 window, as confirmed by the National Weather Service.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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