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Israel strike contract draws $7.8 million as resolution date approaches

World Monitor's live board tracks 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets on geopolitics, economics and technology, read on November 7. The Israel contract resolves on January 1, 2027.

A Polymarket contract concerning Israel striking four countries in 2026 was priced at 79.2 percent, with $7.8 million traded, according to World Monitor.

The figures come from a November 7 reading of World Monitor’s live board. The report was published on Nov 7, 2026, at 1:15 PM ET.

Contract timeline and market coverage

The Israel contract resolves on January 1, 2027, according to World Monitor. Its stated subject concerns strikes during 2026, making the distinction between the event period and the resolution date relevant to readers.

World Monitor’s board tracks 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi, covering geopolitics, economics and technology. The Israel contract’s price and trading volume are a snapshot within that broader coverage, rather than a measure of the board as a whole.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 79.2 percent price indicates market pricing favored the contract’s outcome at the November 7 reading; it does not establish that the outcome will occur.
  • The $7.8 million figure records trading volume, not the number of participants or the strength of independent evidence.
  • The supplied summary does not identify the four countries or provide detailed resolution criteria. Those omissions limit interpretation of what precisely would qualify for resolution on January 1, 2027.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
    Publisher
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