Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Kalshi Bitcoin downside contracts retreat as trading concentrates at $50,000 threshold

PredictionMarketPicks, in its 5:00 PM EST snapshot on November 4, ranks the contract asking whether Bitcoin will be below 50,000 dollars by January 1, 2027 as the most-traded crypto contract on Kalshi by 24 hour volume at 6 cents, down 4 cents, on 35,000 contracts traded and 570,000 in open interest. The below 40,000 dollars contract is priced at 3 cents, down 2 cents, on 25,000 contracts.

A Kalshi contract asking whether Bitcoin will be below $50,000 by January 1, 2027 traded at 6 cents, a decline of 4 cents, according to PredictionMarketPicks.

Trading activity and prices

PredictionMarketPicks’ November 4 snapshot, taken at 5:00 PM EST, ranked the contract as Kalshi’s most-traded crypto contract by 24-hour volume. It recorded 35,000 contracts traded and open interest of 570,000.

The Bitcoin below-$40,000 contract was priced at 3 cents, down 2 cents, with 25,000 contracts traded, according to the same summary.

Lower prices for downside outcomes

Both contracts declined in price, indicating a lower market-implied likelihood of their respective below-threshold outcomes. The $50,000 contract nevertheless drew more trading activity than the $40,000 contract.

The report was published on November 4, 2026, at 5:15 PM ET. The supplied snapshot does not identify what drove the price declines or provide Bitcoin’s underlying market price.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Downside pricing weakened: The $50,000 contract fell 4 cents to 6 cents, while the $40,000 contract dropped 2 cents to 3 cents.
  • Activity centered on $50,000: Its 35,000-contract volume led Kalshi’s crypto contracts over the reported 24-hour period, alongside 570,000 in open interest.
  • The snapshot has limits: These figures describe contract pricing and participation at a specific time, not a confirmed change in Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals.
KalshiBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionMarketPicks
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PredictionMarketPicks”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related