US-Iran nuclear deal contract draws $21.4 million at 10.5 percent
World Monitor ranks the contract second among its 50 tracked Polymarket and Kalshi markets by total volume. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
A Polymarket contract on a US-Iran final nuclear deal by December 31, 2026 is priced at 10.5 percent, according to World Monitor. The contract has recorded $21.4 million in traded volume.
High volume, low implied likelihood
World Monitor ranks the contract second by total volume among the 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets it tracks. That ranking places it near the top of the outlet’s monitored group, not necessarily across either platform as a whole.
The figures appeared in a report published on Nov 7, 2026 at 2:15 PM ET. They pair substantial trading activity with a price indicating a low market-implied likelihood of a final deal by the specified deadline.
Deadline and market close
The contract’s deal deadline is December 31, 2026, while the market closes on January 1, 2027, according to World Monitor. Those dates distinguish the event window from the market’s closing date.
The supplied summary does not include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria. It therefore does not establish what documentation or agreement terms would qualify as a final nuclear deal.
What it means for prediction markets
- Price and volume measure different things: The 10.5 percent price signals a low implied likelihood; the $21.4 million traded measures activity, not confidence in a deal.
- The ranking has a defined scope: Second place applies to World Monitor’s 50 tracked Polymarket and Kalshi markets.
- Resolution wording matters: Assessing the contract requires distinguishing the December 31, 2026 deal deadline from the January 1, 2027 market close, alongside criteria absent from the summary.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- World Monitor
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
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