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Russia-Ukraine ceasefire contract draws $10.6 million with year-end odds at 15.5%

World Monitor ranks the contract among the most traded geopolitics markets on its live board of 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets. A second, related ceasefire contract on the same board is priced at 10.5 percent with 3.5 million dollars traded.

According to World Monitor, a Polymarket contract on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026 is priced at 15.5 percent, with 10.6 million dollars traded.

The figures appeared in an update published Nov 7, 2026 · 2:00 PM ET. The price places the agreement outcome below an even chance as the contract’s year-end deadline approaches.

Two ceasefire contracts on the board

World Monitor lists the contract among the most traded geopolitics markets on its live board, which covers 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi.

A second, related ceasefire contract on that board is priced at 10.5 percent, with 3.5 million dollars traded, according to World Monitor. The supplied summary does not specify that contract’s deadline, platform or resolution terms, limiting direct comparison with the December 31, 2026 contract.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 15.5 percent price signals a low market-implied likelihood of a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, rather than certainty that no agreement will occur.
  • The 10.6 million dollars traded indicates substantial activity, but trading volume alone does not establish forecast accuracy.
  • The related contract’s 10.5 percent price should not be treated as a competing estimate of the same event without confirming its terms and deadline.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    World Monitor
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