Polymarket puts year-end Russia and Ukraine ceasefire odds at 12.5 percent

Polymarket traders assign a 12.5 percent probability to a Russia and Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, according to World Monitor.

The update, published Nov 5, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET, places the contract’s implied probability well below an even chance as its year-end deadline approaches.

Heavy trading, low implied probability

The market has recorded 10.4 million dollars in trading, according to World Monitor. It ranks among the most traded geopolitics markets tracked, although the supplied summary gives no exact ranking.

That activity indicates substantial trading interest, but it is distinct from the likelihood reflected in the price. The reported volume does not, by itself, show whether traders have become more or less optimistic about an agreement.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline defines the question: The contract concerns a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, rather than the prospect of an agreement at any later point.
• The price is a snapshot: The reported 12.5 percent probability is not accompanied by earlier prices, so the summary does not establish a trend.
• Resolution details remain unspecified: The supplied material does not include the contract’s settlement criteria, limiting conclusions about which developments would qualify as an agreement.