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California wealth tax market trails voter support ahead of November ballot

RG.org said the Prop. 40 market sits well below the latest Public Policy Institute of California survey of 1,086 likely voters taken October 16 to 22, which had the measure at 46 percent yes and 52 percent no. California votes on the one-time billionaire wealth tax on Tuesday, November 3.

Polymarket prices put the yes outcome for California’s Prop. 40 at 23 percent and the no outcome at 78 percent, with 4.3 million dollars traded, according to RG.org.

California votes on the one-time billionaire wealth tax on Tuesday, November 3. The market figures were reported on Oct 31, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET.

Polling and market pricing diverge

The latest Public Policy Institute of California survey recorded 46 percent yes and 52 percent no among 1,086 likely voters. The survey was conducted October 16 to 22, according to RG.org.

RG.org highlighted that the market’s yes price sits well below the survey’s support figure. Both readings favor the no side, but they measure different things: the poll captures voter preferences, while the market prices outcomes rather than vote shares.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 23 percent yes price and 46 percent polling support should not be treated as directly comparable estimates of passage probability.
  • The survey’s October 16 to 22 fieldwork predates the October 31 market report, an important timing distinction when assessing the gap.
  • The reported 4.3 million dollars in trading volume shows activity in the contract, not proof that its pricing will match the November 3 result.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    RG.orgrg.org
    Publisher
    https://rg.org
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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