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Kalshi Bitcoin odds put $80,000 threshold near even for November 6

DeFi Rate, observed at 3:52 PM ET on November 4, shows Kalshi's Bitcoin price contract for the 5 PM ET close on November 6 with 80,000 dollars or above at 51 percent and 80,500 dollars or above at 42 percent. The contract traded 343,000 dollars in 24 hours.

Kalshi’s Bitcoin price contract placed the probability of a finish at $80,000 or above at 51 percent, according to DeFi Rate. The contract concerns the 5 PM ET close on November 6.

Two thresholds show a nine-point gap

DeFi Rate’s observation, taken at 3:52 PM ET on November 4, put the probability of Bitcoin closing at $80,500 or above at 42 percent. That was nine percentage points below the probability for the $80,000 threshold.

The two readings show how pricing differed across a $500 step in the contract’s price ladder. The lower threshold was just above even odds, while the higher threshold was below them.

Trading activity and timing

The contract recorded $343,000 in trading over 24 hours, according to DeFi Rate. The supplied figures do not break that volume down by price threshold.

The report was published on Nov 4, 2026 at 4:15 PM ET. Its probability readings reflect the earlier observation, rather than a final outcome for the November 6 close.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 51 percent reading put $80,000 or above near even odds; it did not indicate a decisive market expectation.
  • The nine-percentage-point gap between the thresholds highlights the distinction between reaching $80,000 and closing at least $500 higher.
  • The $343,000 volume figure describes contract-level activity over 24 hours, not trading at either individual threshold.
KalshiBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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