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Kalshi Bitcoin odds show sharp divide around $80,000 before close

DeFi Rate, observed at 3:52 PM ET on November 4, shows Kalshi's Bitcoin price contract for the 5 PM ET close with 79,750 dollars or above at 82 percent and 80,000 dollars or above at 47 percent. The contract traded 564,000 dollars in 24 hours, the most of any hourly or daily Bitcoin market on the board.

According to DeFi Rate, Kalshi’s Bitcoin price contract for the 5 PM ET close on November 4, 2026 showed an 82 percent probability of a price at or above $79,750.

The same contract priced Bitcoin at or above $80,000 at 47 percent. Those readings were observed at 3:52 PM ET on November 4, ahead of the report’s 4:00 PM ET publication.

A narrow price gap, a wide probability gap

The two thresholds were separated by $250, but their implied probabilities differed by 35 percentage points. The snapshot therefore showed substantially stronger market confidence in Bitcoin clearing $79,750 than reaching $80,000 at the specified close.

Trading totaled $564,000 over 24 hours, according to DeFi Rate. That was the highest volume of any hourly or daily Bitcoin market on the board.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Threshold selection matters: The $79,750 and $80,000 outcomes carried markedly different probabilities despite their relatively small price separation.
  • Timing limits the snapshot: The figures reflect pricing at 3:52 PM ET, not the eventual outcome at the 5 PM ET close.
  • Volume provides context, not certainty: The contract led the board’s hourly and daily Bitcoin markets in 24-hour trading, but that ranking does not establish whether either threshold would be met.
KalshiBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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