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Bitcoin year-end range contract shows pricing divide across two venues

Rivo reports the contract on Bitcoin ending 2026 between 70,000 and 75,000 dollars priced at 10 cents on Polymarket US against 13.4 cents on Kalshi in its November 4, 1:19 a.m. ET read, a 3.4-point gap between the two venues on the same outcome. Bitcoin traded near 77,800 dollars at the time, above the top of the band.

A contract tied to Bitcoin finishing 2026 between $70,000 and $75,000 showed different prices on Polymarket US and Kalshi, according to Rivo.

A 3.4-point difference

Rivo’s November 4, 1:19 a.m. ET reading put the contract at 10 cents on Polymarket US and 13.4 cents on Kalshi. That left a 3.4-point gap between the venues for the same outcome.

The higher Kalshi price indicated that this year-end range was priced more strongly there at that moment. The supplied snapshot does not establish how long the difference had persisted.

Bitcoin above the target range

Bitcoin was trading near $77,800 at the time, according to Rivo, placing it above the contract’s $75,000 upper boundary. A finish within the specified range would therefore require a decline from that level.

The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 1:30 AM ET. Its figures describe a single observation rather than a trend in either Bitcoin’s price or the contract’s pricing.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Venue pricing differed: Kalshi’s 13.4-cent price exceeded Polymarket US’s 10-cent price by 3.4 points for the same stated outcome.
  • The band sat below spot: Bitcoin’s roughly $77,800 price was above the $70,000–$75,000 year-end range.
  • Execution details are missing: The supplied material does not include liquidity, fees or settlement terms, so the price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity.
KalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Rivo
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