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Polymarket traders slash odds of Bitcoin dropping to 75,000 dollars in October

Polymarket traders cut the chance that Bitcoin dips to 75,000 dollars in October to 1.4 percent, down 27.6 points in 24 hours, with 243,000 dollars traded in the last day. The market has 1.3 million dollars in lifetime volume and resolves on November 1, 2026.

Polymarket’s implied probability that Bitcoin dips to 75,000 dollars in October fell to 1.4 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. The probability dropped 27.6 percentage points over 24 hours.

Trading activity ahead of resolution

PredictionBubbles reported the figures on Oct 31, 2026, at 10:30 AM ET. Trading volume over the preceding day totaled 243,000 dollars.

The market’s lifetime volume reached 1.3 million dollars. Those figures distinguish the activity accompanying the latest probability change from turnover across the market’s history.

October threshold, November resolution

The contract concerns whether Bitcoin dips to 75,000 dollars in October and is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026. The reported repricing therefore comes just before its resolution date.

The 1.4 percent reading reflects traders’ assessment of the outcome, not a confirmed settlement. The supplied summary does not include Bitcoin’s current price or the contract’s detailed resolution criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 27.6-percentage-point decline represents a substantial shift away from the October downside outcome over 24 hours.
  • The 243,000 dollars traded in the last day provides activity context, but volume alone does not explain the repricing.
  • With resolution scheduled for November 1, 2026, the distinction between the market’s implied probability and its final outcome remains important.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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