Polymarket contract for Iran-Oman Hormuz deal by November 30 rises to 23%

Polymarket’s implied probability of an Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement by November 30 reached 23 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. That represents an increase of 8 percentage points over 24 hours.

The update, published Oct 31, 2026 at 10:45 AM ET, shows traders assigning a higher chance to an agreement, although the market still places that outcome below even odds.

Trading activity and timing

Trading volume totaled 13,000 dollars over the last day, according to PredictionBubbles. Lifetime volume in the market stands at 200,000 dollars.

The agreement deadline is November 30, while the market resolves on December 1, 2026. Those dates distinguish the window for the anticipated agreement from the scheduled resolution.

The supplied report does not identify a diplomatic development behind the price increase or provide detailed settlement criteria. The move therefore establishes a change in market expectations, not confirmation of progress toward an agreement.

What it means for prediction markets

• The 8-percentage-point increase marks a notable daily repricing, but the 23 percent probability still leaves an agreement as the less likely outcome.
• The 13,000 dollars in daily volume provides context for the move; it does not, by itself, establish what drove traders’ changing expectations.
• The November 30 deadline and December 1, 2026 resolution date are distinct. Detailed settlement requirements were not included in the supplied report.