Polymarket Bitcoin odds diverge across November and December price thresholds
CoinStats lists the November 5 Bitcoin contract as the busiest crypto market, with 3,784 open crypto events on Polymarket and 121 on Kalshi. A separate Bitcoin contract for December 1 prices a move below 75,000 dollars at 89 percent.
According to CoinStats, Polymarket’s November 5 contract on Bitcoin trading above $76,000 is priced at 35%, with $1.2 million in volume over 24 hours. CoinStats identifies it as the busiest crypto market.
The figures were published on Nov 5, 2026, at 1:30 PM ET, placing the November 5 contract’s pricing snapshot on the same date as its stated target.
Different thresholds and dates
A separate Bitcoin contract for December 1 prices a move below $75,000 at 89%, according to CoinStats. The supplied summary does not identify the platform hosting that contract.
The two prices concern different thresholds and dates, rather than opposing outcomes in a single market. Their comparison therefore does not establish a direct probability of Bitcoin falling between November 5 and December 1.
Crypto market availability
CoinStats lists 3,784 open crypto events on Polymarket and 121 on Kalshi. Those counts describe the number of available events, not their trading volume.
The $1.2 million turnover figure applies specifically to the November 5 Bitcoin contract over 24 hours. The supplied material gives no comparable volume figure for the December 1 contract or Kalshi’s crypto events.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 35% price and $1.2 million in daily turnover provide a snapshot of pricing and activity around the November 5 $76,000 threshold.
- The December 1 contract’s 89% price concerns a separate downside threshold; it should not be treated as the complement of the November 5 contract.
- Polymarket’s larger open-event count indicates broader listed crypto coverage in this snapshot, but does not by itself establish greater liquidity across those events.
- Full resolution terms are not supplied, limiting precise comparisons between the two Bitcoin contracts.
Sources & attribution
- Published
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- CoinStats
- Publisher
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to CoinStats”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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