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Kalshi’s $200,000 Bitcoin contract leads crypto board despite low odds

The Kalshi market on Bitcoin being above 200,000 dollars by January 1, 2027 is the most traded crypto market on the PredictionBubbles crypto board, at 1.0 percent with 14.0 million dollars traded, down 1.0 point. The next most traded crypto markets were Bitcoin dipping to 45,000 dollars by December 31 at 9.0 million dollars on Polymarket.

A Kalshi contract on Bitcoin being above $200,000 by January 1, 2027 was priced at 1.0 percent, with $14.0 million traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ November 1, 2026 update at 9:30 AM ET.

The contract ranked as the most traded crypto market on the PredictionBubbles crypto board. Its price was down 1.0 point, although the supplied summary did not specify the comparison period.

Trading volume contrasts with implied likelihood

The Kalshi market paired the board’s largest reported crypto trading volume with a low implied probability. Its leading position by turnover therefore did not translate into strong market expectations that Bitcoin would meet the $200,000 condition.

Next in the reported volume ranking was a Polymarket market on Bitcoin dipping to $45,000 by December 31, with $9.0 million traded. PredictionBubbles’ summary did not provide a probability for that contract.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume and probability measure different things: The Kalshi contract’s $14.0 million turnover establishes its reported trading rank, while its 1.0 percent price indicates a low implied likelihood.
  • The contracts are not direct counterparts: They concern different Bitcoin thresholds, deadlines and platforms; their volumes alone do not establish a shared directional outlook.
  • The available comparison is limited: Without a probability for the Polymarket contract or a time window for Kalshi’s 1.0-point decline, the summary cannot establish how sentiment changed across both markets.
KalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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