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Short-duration Bitcoin bets account for one-fifth of prediction-market trading

DeFi Rate said the 15-minute Bitcoin up-or-down markets settle 96 times a day and settle on the CF Benchmarks index, with Coinbase listing Kalshi's 15-minute and hourly crypto markets since October 6 in every state except Nevada. In the midday window Kalshi priced Bitcoin up at 78 percent against Polymarket US at 82 percent.

Bitcoin’s 15-minute up-or-down markets generated about 206 million dollars in trading in the 24 hours to October 31, roughly 20 percent of all prediction-market volume, according to DeFi Rate.

The figures place these short-duration Bitcoin contracts at a substantial share of overall activity. The report was published on Oct 31, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET.

Frequent settlement and broader access

According to DeFi Rate, the 15-minute Bitcoin markets settle 96 times a day, using the CF Benchmarks index to determine outcomes.

Coinbase has listed Kalshi’s 15-minute and hourly crypto markets since October 6. Those listings are available in every state except Nevada, DeFi Rate said.

Midday prices differ across venues

In the midday window, Kalshi priced a Bitcoin-up outcome at 78 percent, compared with 82 percent on Polymarket US, according to DeFi Rate. That represents a four-percentage-point difference between the two venues.

The supplied figures capture a midday comparison rather than a full-day pricing record. They do not establish whether that difference persisted.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Activity is concentrated: About 206 million dollars in 24-hour volume gives 15-minute Bitcoin contracts roughly one-fifth of all prediction-market trading.
  • Resolution details matter: These markets settle 96 times daily against the CF Benchmarks index, making the settlement reference central to interpreting outcomes.
  • Access has a geographic limit: Coinbase’s Kalshi crypto listings extend to every state except Nevada.
  • Prices vary by venue: The 78 percent and 82 percent midday readings show different pricing for Bitcoin-up outcomes, but the snapshot alone does not establish a lasting gap.
KalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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