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Kalshi Bitcoin threshold frames a narrow lead before morning settlement

DeFi Rate observed the window between 6:52 AM and 6:54 AM ET on November 5, with Bitcoin at 80,288.56 dollars and Polymarket international pricing Up at 55 cents. Both venues settle the 15-minute markets on the CF Benchmarks index.

Kalshi’s Bitcoin 15-minute market ending at 7:00 AM ET on November 5 set its target at 80,265.84 dollars, according to DeFi Rate.

Snapshot ahead of the close

DeFi Rate observed the market between 6:52 AM and 6:54 AM ET on November 5. Bitcoin stood at 80,288.56 dollars in that snapshot, above the Kalshi target.

During the same observation window, Polymarket international priced Up at 55 cents. That was a pre-close price, not a reported settlement result.

Settlement benchmark matters

Both venues settle their 15-minute markets using the CF Benchmarks index, according to DeFi Rate. That shared reference is important when interpreting the Bitcoin price observation alongside the market threshold.

The report was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 7:15 AM ET. Although publication followed the scheduled close, the supplied information contains only the earlier snapshot and does not establish the final outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Bitcoin was above Kalshi’s 80,265.84-dollar target during the observation window, but that alone does not establish where the settlement index finished.
  • Polymarket international’s 55-cent Up price captures pricing between 6:52 AM and 6:54 AM ET, rather than at the 7:00 AM ET close.
  • The common CF Benchmarks settlement reference gives readers a shared benchmark across venues; no Kalshi contract price was supplied for comparison.
KalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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