Ravens’ Super Bowl probability sinks to 1 percent on Kalshi
DeFi Rate's biggest market moves of the last seven days show Baltimore's Super Bowl price down 5 points, from 6 percent to 1 percent. Baltimore lost 36 to 10 to Buffalo on Sunday, a game Kalshi had priced at 62 percent for Buffalo at kickoff.
Baltimore’s Super Bowl price on Kalshi dropped from 6 percent to 1 percent over the last seven days, according to DeFi Rate’s roundup of the biggest market moves.
The 5-percentage-point decline followed a 36 to 10 loss to Buffalo on Sunday, leaving Baltimore priced substantially lower in the championship market.
Buffalo loss accompanies championship repricing
At kickoff, Kalshi’s market had assigned Buffalo a 62 percent chance of winning, according to DeFi Rate. The result therefore favored the team already considered more likely to win that game.
The figures cover two different outcomes: Buffalo’s probability of winning Sunday’s matchup and Baltimore’s probability of winning the Super Bowl. The supplied reporting establishes Baltimore’s weekly decline but does not isolate how much of that move occurred during or after the game.
What it means for prediction markets
- A sharp weekly reassessment: Baltimore’s move from 6 percent to 1 percent represents a 5-percentage-point reduction in its market-implied championship probability.
- A favored winner, a separate market impact: Buffalo entered the game at 62 percent. That game-level price should not be treated as a direct measure of Baltimore’s Super Bowl prospects.
- Timing remains unresolved: The weekly figures alone cannot establish how much of Baltimore’s repricing was attributable to the 36 to 10 defeat.
Sources & attribution
- Published
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- DeFi Ratedefirate.com
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- https://defirate.com
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