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Polymarket volume concentration puts focus on wallets carrying open risk

A Dune report cited by Blockhead attributes more than 91 percent of Polymarket on-chain volume to high-frequency traders, asset managers and arbitrageurs. The directional signal sits with a mid-level conviction cohort of 18,457 wallets holding the largest share of open risk, while sports made up roughly 89 percent of Kalshi 2025 fee revenue by one estimate.

A Dune report cited by Blockhead attributes more than 91 percent of Polymarket’s on-chain volume to high-frequency traders, asset managers and arbitrageurs. That concentration makes the distinction between trading activity and directional conviction important for prediction-market readers.

Volume and conviction point to different groups

According to Blockhead’s account of the Dune report, the directional signal lies with a mid-level conviction cohort comprising 18,457 wallets. This group holds the largest share of open risk.

The findings distinguish the participants generating most on-chain volume from the cohort carrying the largest share of open exposure. Volume leadership alone therefore should not be treated as a measure of where directional conviction sits.

Kalshi’s revenue mix adds a separate perspective

On Kalshi, sports accounted for roughly 89 percent of 2025 fee revenue by one estimate cited in the supplied summary. That figure describes revenue concentration by market category, rather than the composition of traders.

The Polymarket and Kalshi figures measure different things: on-chain volume, open risk and fee revenue. They offer separate views of prediction-market activity, not a directly comparable measure of participation or conviction.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Separate turnover from exposure: The groups responsible for more than 91 percent of Polymarket’s on-chain volume are not the cohort identified as holding the largest share of open risk.
  • Watch the conviction cohort: The 18,457-wallet group is where the cited analysis locates the directional signal; that finding is not a guarantee of forecasting accuracy.
  • Keep revenue estimates in context: Kalshi’s roughly 89 percent sports share concerns estimated 2025 fee revenue, not trading volume or open risk.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Blockhead
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