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Democratic sweep gains five points as balance of power odds shift

PredictionTape reports the balance of power market has moved 5 points toward a Democratic sweep, now 77 percent on Polymarket and 76 percent on Kalshi, with a split of a Republican Senate and Democratic House at 18 to 19 percent and a Republican sweep at 5 to 7 percent.

Democratic control is the leading outcome in balance of power markets, with a sweep priced at 77 percent on Polymarket and 76 percent on Kalshi, according to PredictionTape.

The figures appeared in PredictionTape’s Nov 3, 2026 update, published at 10:00 AM ET. Its summary reported a 5-point move toward a Democratic sweep.

Split control trails a Democratic sweep

A Republican Senate paired with a Democratic House is priced at 18 to 19 percent, according to PredictionTape. That leaves divided control well behind the Democratic-sweep outcome in the reported pricing.

A Republican sweep stands at 5 to 7 percent. The supplied summary does not assign the individual figures within either range to a specific platform.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The two platforms are closely aligned: Polymarket’s 77 percent Democratic-sweep price is 1 percentage point above Kalshi’s 76 percent.
  • The reported shift favors a Democratic sweep: PredictionTape identifies a 5-point move, but the summary provides neither a comparison period nor a reason for the change.
  • Alternative outcomes remain priced in: Split control at 18 to 19 percent and a Republican sweep at 5 to 7 percent indicate that the leading outcome is not treated as certain.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionTape
    Publisher
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