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Bab el-Mandeb closure contract draws $17.8 million as year-end deadline approaches

World Monitor's live board on November 1 at 12:21 PM UTC tracks 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets. The Bab el-Mandeb closure market closes at the start of 2027 and ranks among the most traded markets on the board.

The Polymarket contract on whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed by December 31 was priced at 11.5 percent, with $17.8 million traded, according to World Monitor.

A heavily traded contract on the board

World Monitor’s live board tracked 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi as of November 1 at 12:21 PM UTC. The Bab el-Mandeb closure contract ranked among the board’s most traded markets.

The report was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 7:30 AM ET. Its figures provide a snapshot of pricing and trading activity, rather than a record of how expectations changed over time.

Deadline and settlement details

The contract’s stated event deadline is December 31, while the market closes at the start of 2027, according to World Monitor. The supplied summary does not specify the criteria for determining whether the strait is effectively closed.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 11.5 percent price places closure on the lower-probability side of the contract’s outcomes; it is market pricing, not confirmation of what will happen.
  • The $17.8 million traded and the contract’s ranking show substantial activity relative to other markets on World Monitor’s board, but do not establish forecasting accuracy.
  • The definition of effective closure matters for interpreting the contract. Those resolution terms are not included in the supplied material.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    World Monitor
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