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Kalshi gasoline threshold draws 13.0% odds in thin early trading

PredictionBubbles' new-markets list, on its Nov. 1, 12:25 UTC live read, shows the above $4.80 gas strike, opened about 7 hours ago, at 13.0% on a thin $1K traded,…

A Kalshi contract on average gas prices exceeding $4.80 by November 30 was priced at 13.0%, according to PredictionBubbles’ new-markets list. The reading showed $1K traded.

Early snapshot of a new market

PredictionBubbles recorded the figures in its Nov. 1, 12:25 UTC live read. The market had opened about 7 hours earlier, making the price an early indication rather than a record of sustained trading.

The supplied item was published Nov 1, 2026 · 7:24 AM ET. Its summary provides only a snapshot of the contract’s price, trading volume and approximate age; it does not establish a price trend.

Limited context for the threshold

The 13.0% price places the above-$4.80 outcome on the less-likely side of the market’s assessment. With just $1K traded, however, the reading offers limited evidence of a broad or durable consensus.

The supplied material does not identify the gasoline-price benchmark or the contract’s detailed settlement rules. Those omissions limit how precisely readers can interpret the November 30 threshold.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Price versus depth: The 13.0% reading should be considered alongside the thin $1K in trading, rather than treated as a settled consensus.
  • Short history: A market opened about 7 hours earlier provides little basis here for assessing whether expectations are strengthening or weakening.
  • Resolution details matter: The average-price benchmark and settlement terms are not supplied, leaving important context unavailable.
PredictionMarketsKalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com/markets
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Kalshi”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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