ASIC signals licensing obstacle for retail prediction markets in Australia

Australia’s securities regulator has cast doubt on whether retail prediction markets can meet the public-interest requirement for a market licence. On October 30, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said it was not currently persuaded that these markets serve the public interest.

Binary options comparison shapes ASIC’s position

ASIC Chair Sarah Court pointed to the all-or-nothing payoff structure of prediction-market contracts, drawing a comparison with binary options. ASIC’s ban on binary options for retail clients runs until October 2031.

That comparison identifies a central concern for retail access. ASIC’s stated position is a current assessment of the public interest, rather than a decision on an operator’s licence application.

No operator has sought an Australian licence

No prediction-market operator has applied for an Australian licence. The regulator’s comments therefore signal a potential licensing obstacle without resolving any individual application.

Polymarket has been blocked in Australia since August 2025. That existing restriction is separate from the question of whether an operator could obtain a market licence.

What it means for prediction markets

• ASIC’s public-interest assessment is a key hurdle for any prospective Australian retail prediction-market licence.
• The comparison with binary options puts contract structure at the centre of the regulatory discussion; the retail binary-options ban extends until October 2031.
• With no licence applications submitted, the comments should not be treated as a formal rejection of a particular operator.
• Polymarket’s block since August 2025 remains distinct from the unresolved licensing question.