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Cardinals’ narrow win overturns Kalshi’s kickoff outlook in Arlington

The Cardinals won 33 to 30 in Arlington on November 1, an upset against Kalshi's kickoff price of 25 percent for Arizona. Kalshi's market page records the final score and notes the result settled against the market favorite.

Arizona defeated the Dallas Cowboys 33 to 30 in Arlington on November 1, according to Kalshi. The Cardinals entered the game with a Kalshi kickoff price implying a 25 percent chance of winning.

A result against the favorite

Kalshi’s market page records the final score and identifies the outcome as a settlement against the market favorite. Arizona’s victory therefore delivered the less likely of the outcomes reflected in its kickoff price.

The three-point margin tells the story of the final result, but the supplied material does not describe how the game unfolded or how prices changed after kickoff.

Price versus outcome

The Kalshi update was published on Nov 2, 2026, at 12:00 AM ET. It provides a kickoff probability and a final result, rather than a broader record of market performance.

Arizona’s win is an upset relative to that probability, not by itself evidence that the price was poorly calibrated. A 25 percent chance still allows for a victory; assessing pricing accuracy would require more than this single result.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The underdog prevailed: Arizona won 33 to 30 despite a kickoff price implying a 25 percent win probability.
  • Settlement opposed the favorite: According to Kalshi’s market page, the final outcome settled against the side favored by the market.
  • The evidence is limited: Without an in-game price history or additional results, this outcome cannot establish how the market responded during play or how accurately it priced comparable games.
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Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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