Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day priced at 21.4% on Polymarket, down 2.8 points, on $678K traded

Anthropic valuation band loses ground

The Polymarket contract asking whether Anthropic’s market capitalization will fall between $2.0T and $2.25T at the close of its IPO day was priced at 21.4%, down 2.8 percentage points over 24 hours, according to the supplied PredictionBubbles snapshot. The contract had recorded $678K in traded volume.

The snapshot was published Oct. 29, 2026, at 7:09 AM ET. Its summary references a finance-board crawl on Oct. 29 at 10:54 UTC showing 196 open markets and $164.4M traded.

The decline indicates a lower market-implied probability for that particular valuation range. It does not, by itself, establish whether traders shifted toward a valuation below $2.0T or above $2.25T. The supplied material includes neither prices for neighboring bands nor an explanation for the move.

A snapshot with limits

According to PredictionBubbles, its finance board aggregates contracts from Polymarket and Kalshi, with published data refreshed every 15 minutes. The underlying venues trade continuously, so the displayed probabilities can lag subsequent transactions.

The supplied page text contains a different market count from the crawl summary: 193 open markets, comprising 18 from Kalshi and 175 from Polymarket. Those figures should be treated as separate reported snapshots rather than a single consistent tally.

PredictionBubbles identifies the Polymarket contract on whether there will be no Fed rate cuts in 2026 as the board’s highest-volume finance market at its last refresh, with $9.2M traded. Its volume rankings are separate from its rankings of absolute probability changes over the preceding 24 hours; Anthropic’s $678K therefore measures reported trading activity, not the magnitude or cause of its repricing.

What it means for prediction markets

• The outcome is narrowly defined: The 21.4% price concerns the $2.0T–$2.25T band at the close of Anthropic’s IPO day, not a general forecast of the company’s valuation.
• Direction remains unresolved: A 2.8-point decline in one band cannot distinguish a shift toward higher valuations from a shift toward lower ones without other contract prices.
• Volume is not an explanation: The $678K traded provides activity context, but the supplied material does not identify what drove the probability change.
• Timing matters: PredictionBubbles refreshes every 15 minutes, making this a dated market snapshot rather than a continuously current quote.